Monday, October 27, 2008

Down, down, down...

What's happened to Poker Drivel?

That's a very good question and it begs a good answer... The answer is, I've been on a slide that has really shaken my core foundation and made me wonder why I ever played this game and why I should continue.

Flop two pair with big slick. Bet. Get Raised. Re-Raise. Opponent goes all-in. Call. He's got pocket T's. Turn is a T.

Very next hand. I have Aces in late position. Raise significantly pre-flop and am called by big blind. Flop is junk. He bets pot. Don't figure him for a set or he would have bet less or not at all on flop. I raise. He calls. Turn is also junk. Potential straight, but he'd have to be playing something like 5-7. He bets pot. I raise. We're getting thin behind and pot is getting very large. He raises all-in. I call. He has pocket K's. River is a K.

I don't post these to whine about these specific hands or seek sympathy on any level... Only to wonder allowed how I can have stretches of days, even weeks, where hands like this are the norm. I fear hitting a really good hand because I know, given my current run, I'm a solid 75% to lose it.

It boggles my mind, beats me up, and really makes me want to throw the countless hours I've spent at the poker table and all the experience I've gained in the toilet. Screw this game.

Who needs it?

Had turned a 300% profit on intial buy-in at FTP in 2 months. Dropped down to a 30% loss in a week of complete inability to win a worthwile hand no matter how I played it. Now I'm at about 10% profit after I took down a random SnG last night.

I find myself wondering if I should start over or just walk...


matt tag said...

variance, variance, variance.

10% overall ROI is considered good. Keep plugging away.

Cardgrrl said...

What Matt said.

Also, even if you have a dead solid read on your opponent, a big pair is just a big pair. I would exercise pot control with only an overpair to the board.

You know this.

PAPro_SandMan said...

Yeah, def, small pots for small hands and big pots for big hands... But it's a slightly different game at the bet-happy 25NL games online, at least in my experience.

While I shouldn't overbet, neither should I underbet and allow them to draw... And when they raise, I should call when I know I'm good. Next card also doesn't bring the goods on any of their likely draws, I am going to bet again... And I'm certainly not going to lay down if and when they raise when I still know I'm good.

I understand the concepts and the reasoning, but at the same time pot size isn't purely up to me... When it comes down to it and I have seen the cards, I feel I've done the right thing any time the money hits the table and I am significantly ahead.


As to Matt's post, understood on one level... But 10% ROI over what period of time? By the way you've stated it, one should be happy to turn a $100 initial investment into $110 over the course of 10 years playing...

10% in 2+ months doesn't seem worth the time or mental and emotional stress incurred in the process... At least not to me.